One of the most critical questions asked of a voting public came from previous candidate Jimmy Carter in the sole general election debate between President Ronald Reagan and President Jimmy Carter: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” The Great Communicator went on to win by one of the biggest margins in election history just a few days later.
Why did so many people throughout the US find this question to be so meaningful? It’s the economics, idiot,” said a prominent aide to former president Bill Clinton.
Pundits and analysts’ attention has been riveted on the actual poll numbers as Republicans and Democrats make their closing claims in the struggle for control of Congress, but the Misery Index may also offer some important insights. Arthur Okun, head of President Lyndon Johnson’s Council of Economic Advisers, developed the concept of the “Misery Index” by adding the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in the United States.
It follows that a more unhappy population would result in a greater total. 3.5% unemployment with 8.2% inflation equals a misery index of 11.70 in September 2022, for instance.
Simply scrolling through an image of the metric’s results will show how well it works as a basic guide for anticipating shifts in the political climate of the United States. Republicans were granted an unprecedented three consecutive terms in office when Ronald Reagan succeeded Jimmy Carter and presided over a period of declining unemployment and inflation known as stagflation. Reagan was succeeded by George H.W. Bush, who continued Reagan’s policies and presided over a period of falling economic distress.
Three decades later, the amount of suffering did not significantly grow throughout President Trump’s reign until the lockdown-induced recession suddenly increased the unemployment rate as employees were ordered home due to public health mandates. When President Joe Biden took office, however, the unemployment rate began to fall but inflation skyrocketed, leading to a sharp uptick in people’s general sense of discontent.
Voters in the United States tend to be acutely aware of the growing economic distress. After all, inflation is potentially a larger political impediment than widespread unemployment because rising price levels may affect all economic actors whereas unemployment primarily affects the unemployed.
Bankrate found that 43% of people think their financial situation is worse now than it was two years ago, while only 18% feel it’s better. On a large extent, the former group attributes the economic challenges to Democrats. Sixty-nine percent of those who reported poorer financial circumstances blamed Biden, with thirty percent of Democratic respondents falling into this category, while seventy-one percent blamed Democrats in Congress.
According to a separate survey conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post, 84% of voters rank the economy as their top worry, and Republicans have a double-digit lead over Democrats when it comes to being trusted to handle the economy. The latter party’s candidates are staking their campaigns on less essential topics like abortion and voter suppression.
The Job Creators Network conducted a third study, and they found that although 55% of company owners think Republicans would “do more to support small companies,” only 29% think Democrats would. This pattern persisted even among firms owned by women, and an even bigger share of minority-owned businesses showed a preference for Republicans, a hint of widespread approval for the party even among those the GOP has previously struggled to win over.
The Biden administration’s messaging has painted an extremely optimistic picture of the economy, which is at odds with people’ actual experiences. The latest unemployment figures showed an increase over the previous month, and the president saw this as evidence that the “economy continues to thrive and generate jobs.” He made this remark after the most recent inflation statistics revealed that prices have been hovering around four-decade highs.