Although control of the House is in doubt, there is no doubt that Republicans will gain ground in the Senate. That may not be good for legislation if Democrats control the House, but confirmations will move swiftly through the Senate.
Already, Joe Manchin is signaling that he will vote for Kavanaugh in an effort to save his job but three others have been playing it coy, knowing that opposing him could be a career ender for them. Florida, Indiana, and North Dakota all show Republicans in the lead even if Democrats vote more heavily than Republicans do.
In Florida, Republican Gov. Rick Scott leads Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) 49 percent to 46 percent among registered voters.
In Indiana, Republican nominee and businessman Mike Braun leads Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) 49 percent to 47 percent among registered voters.
In North Dakota, Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) leads Sen. Heidi Heitkamp 52 percent to 47 percent among registered voters. (With only 457 respondents, the North Dakota poll’s margin of error was 7.5 percent.)
In Florida, Scott holds a three point lead over Nelson in the high Democrat turnout model, with a nine-point lead in the high Republican turnout model.
In Indiana, Braun holds a one-point lead over Nelson in the high Democrat turnout model, and an eight point lead in the high Republican turnout model.
In North Dakota, Kramer holds a five-point lead over Heitkamp in the high Democrat turnout model, and a ten point lead in the high Republican turnout model.
It gets worse for Democrats. They thought they were going to pick up Tennessee but the polls there have turned around and Marsha Blackburn is now leading Democrat Phil Bredesen by 14 points with a high Democrat turnout and by 19 in a high Republican turn out.
In Arizona Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) had a double-digit lead over Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ), but that lead is now down to 4 points.
In Missouri Claire McCaskill leads Josh Hawley by 5 in heavy Democratic turnout and in a heavy Republican turnout Hawley leads by 5.
And the biggest shocker is in Ohio where Sherrod Brown once had a commanding lead over Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH), Brown leads by 8 points with a heavy Democratic turnout but is losing by one with a heavy Republican turnout.
There is a red wave forming in the Senate and it could carry over into the House races.