Trump has been hinting at a bid for president again in 2024, which may set up a repeat of the 2020 race with President Biden if he decides to run. Even before the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago in August, Trump’s taunting became more obvious throughout the course of the summer, and the suspicion surely increased thereafter, on the assumption that being targeted in such a way would propel Trump even further.
In the last days leading up to the midterm elections, speculation arose as to whether or not Trump would make such an announcement, and opinions were split on whether or not this would be a wise move. Trump’s Save America PAC published many emails on Thursday showing surveys indicating he is ahead in 2024, which might be the strongest evidence yet that he will run for president in 2020, even though he has not yet announced.
Trump is ahead of Biden by double digits in Nevada, according to a survey done by Rasmussen Reports and the Capitol Resource Institute last month. The survey surveyed 707 Nevada likely voters between October 13-17, and its margin of error was 4%.
Considering Trump will lose Nevada in both 2016 and 2020, his advantage there is all the more striking. Since President George W. Bush was re-elected in 2004, no Republican has won the state of Nevada’s presidential primary.
The Institute for Civics and Public Policy (ICAPP) at Ohio Northern University also conducted a poll in the Buckeye State last month. A majority of respondents (53.64%) think Trump would defeat Biden in a rematch in 2024, and an even larger percentage (55.40%) want Trump to prevail.
Another plurality, at 35.60%, said they would “strongly approve” of a rematch between Trump and Biden in 2024, while 46.49% said they would like to see Trump run again in 2024.
“Many people would be excited to witness a rematch between Biden and Trump, despite the fact that they believe Trump would win in the event that it ever took place.” The publication of the survey included a remark from Ohio Northern University professor Robert Alexander.
The survey was conducted online between October 11-15, 2018, and it has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points with a sample size of 668 potential voters in Ohio.
Trump received 51.7% of the vote in Ohio in 2016 and 53.3% in 2020.
However, Trump hasn’t clinched anything yet; the Republican primary, which is widely predicted to include Gov. Ron DeSantis, remains to be won (R-FL). The SAVE America PAC also pointed to a Premise Data survey from September, which had Trump well ahead of the competition. Trump has a 51 percent to 49 percent lead against Biden for the 2024 race. A total of 1,572 participants took part in the survey, which was conducted between September 2-5.
According to Premise’s article,
There has been minimal movement in the Premise Poll’s results on the respondents’ preferred candidates for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential primary. The 64% who back Trump’s renomination are more than four times as many as those who back Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ candidacy.
Mike Pence, the former president, has fallen to seventh place in the Premise Poll.
Everyone is keeping an eye on Trump, but he isn’t the only possible contender being considered. In a September interview with “60 Minutes,” the president hinted that it was conceivable that Biden may not run for reelection, adding fuel to the fire of speculation about his intentions. To what extent will he do it? Amie Parnes’s Sunday headline for The Hill titled “Pressure Mounts on Biden for Post-Midterm Decision” reflected the growing anticipation for his choice after the midterm elections.
Trump would not be the first president to serve two staggered terms if he runs against and defeats Biden in 2024. Grover Cleveland was victorious in 1884, but he was defeated by Benjamin Harrison in 1888. He returned four years later, having gained even more electoral votes in his rematch with Harrison than he had in their first meeting in 1884.