All indicators seem to state that the GOP is having a “very good night” on Election Night, read a report from CNN< highlighting the fact that voters are much more worried about crime, a very traditional strong point for the GOP, instead of abortion, which has historically been used by Democrats as a tactic to swap a section of the public vote their way.
Statistician Harry Enten spoke on “New Day,” a show from CNN hosted by John Berman and Brianna Keilar, in order to talk about the statistics and just how they indicate an upcoming likely GOP blowout, as Enten highlighted a recent poll coming from Monmouth University in which over 82% of those who responded claimed that inflation was the most important issue to be addressed by the federal government all while 72% indicated that crim was their most important issue. That pair of issues was followed by elections/voting (70%), jobs/unemployment (68%), immigration (57%), infrastructure (57%) and finally abortion, at (56%).
“This split, between crime being so high and abortion so low, was quite a shocker to me,” stated Enten.
Enten then attempted to compare which issue kicked up more searches via google, abortion or crime. Back in April, prior to the decision from the Supreme Court that officially overturned Roe v. Wade being put out in June, of those that were searching for one issue or the other, 74% of searches were looking for crime, while only 26% were searching for abortion.
However, in June, the situation seemed to have been reversed as 70% of searches were looking for abortion while just 30% of searchers searched for crime. That did not last for very long as in July, 49% of searchers searched for crime and 51% looked up for abortion, and by August the numbers read 61% for crime and 39% for abortion. Just last month, the numbers were very similar to those prior to the SCOTUS decision, as 71% of searchers were investigating crime and just 29% were looking at abortion.
Berman posited, “It matters, because when you look at these issues, which parties are doing better with them?”
While utilizing both NBC News and Fox News sources, Enten highlighted that when questioned about which party they trusted most on various issues, the GOP was heavily favored by about 23 points regarding crime, 17 points regarding immigration, and 19 points regarding the economy, all while Democrats only led on abortion by 17 points.
While making reference to the 23-point differential when it comes to crime, Enten stated, “Democrats do not want to be in this ballpark. They want to be talking about abortion. … The more that voters care about crime, the worse it is for Democrats.”
Berman brought up a poll from Gallup that stated that as respondents were asked about the issue that were more important to them 48% said the GOP would handle it better while only 37% asserted they would trust the Democrats more.
“This is a huge gap,” expressed Enten. “An eleven-point gap, which is what we have right now, and I looked at all the mid-term elections going back to 1946, this eleven-point edge is near the top.”