Conservative Republicans have warned of a “doomsday scenario” in which Democrats undermine GOP control if House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, the Republican frontrunner for Speaker of the House, loses the speakership election on the floor of the House on January 3, 2023.
Fears have been raised that the so-called moderate or establishment Republicans, following the election of a moderate Republican as a Speaker with Democratic votes, will collaborate with the incoming Democrat minority to alter House rules in a way that gives the incoming Democrat minority significant control over how subpoenas can be issued.
Rep.-elects Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Harriet Hageman (R-WY), who will succeed Rep.-elect Liz Cheney (R), are among those who are calling on their fellow Republicans to back McCarthy (R-WY).
Achieving Victory in Politics
The 114th Congress will officially end on January 3, 2023, with the start of the 115th. The newly elected representatives’ first item of business is to select a new Speaker of the House. A person is elected Speaker of the House of Representatives if they get the support of a majority of the newly elected House members and Senate senators. Assuming a perfect turnout, McCarthy needs 218 votes to become Speaker of the House (i.e., if no one is voting “present” or abstaining and if no voting members are absent).
The current count of representatives in the House is 435. The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and Puerto Rico will not send any delegates to this election.
McCarthy will be formally nominated by Republicans on the House floor, while Representative Hakeem Jeffries will likely be named the new House Democratic Leader (D-NY). After Nancy Pelosi leaves office, Hakeem Jeffries is expected to become Speaker of the House. Despite losing the Speakership, Pelosi will continue serving as a California representative.
McCarthy was officially nominated as Speaker of the House by the Republican Party during a meeting in November. One hundred eighty-eight people voted for him, while just 31 voted for his opponent, making him the conference winner. Andy Biggs, a Republican from Arizona and former head of the House Freedom Caucus, was his opponent. It was McCarthy’s best showing ever, with 188 votes, and he had fewer defections from the conference than Paul Ryan had in McCarthy’s first effort to become Speaker in 2015. Despite this, McCarthy only received 218 votes, 30 short of what was needed.
Members may vote for whomever they choose without a nomination being submitted. In the most recent elections for speakers, some lawmakers voted for individuals who were not on any official nomination ballot. When it came time to vote for Speaker of the House, a few current and former Representatives backed candidates who weren’t themselves House members. Some prominent examples are former senators Jeff Sessions (R-AL) and Rand Paul (R-KY) (R-KY). Once again, a majority vote is all that’s required to choose all of the nominees.
In the ideal situation, with 100% voter turnout, McCarthy needs more than 218 votes to win.
Some Republicans in Congress have publicly said that they will not support McCarthy. Representatives Matt Gaetz (Florida), Andy Biggs (Arizona), Bob Good (Virginia), Ralph Norman (South Carolina), and Matt Rosendale (Montana) are all on board (MT). McCarthy’s election as Speaker would be blocked by a coalition of at least five Republican members in the next Congress due to the GOP’s narrow majority (they have won 222 seats).
Prominent conservatives like McCarthy’s former opponents are worried about the future. Only when a speaker is elected will an official occur in the House. Therefore, the proceedings would be in disarray until a candidate emerged with the support of 218 Representatives, or a simple majority of those present, and voting if Representatives declined to vote for McCarthy on the floor. The seat will remain open until a new Speaker of the House is elected.
Dangerous Weather
Some conservatives are worried that the Democrats will unite behind a Republican establishment candidate to replace McCarthy and that this candidate will agree to rule changes to limit subpoenas from the next House GOP majority into President Joe Biden’s administration in exchange for Democratic votes on the House floor.
Rep. James Comer (R-KY), slated to become the next chair of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, has expressed similar concerns (OGR).
In an interview released over the weekend, Comer said, “I think it’s of the highest priority that we agree on a Speaker.” Breitbart News’s Saturday program on SiriusXM 125, the Patriot Channel, discussed this issue. If I had a say in the matter, I’d cast my ballot for Kevin McCarthy. From where I sit, Kevin McCarthy is the man who will have the most impact on the future. For moderate Republicans to work with Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi, there need to be at least four or five Republicans who disagree with Kevin McCarthy. This would make matters worse for Kevin McCarthy among conservatives. The meeting was adjourned after everyone had an opportunity to speak and a vote was taken. McCarthy agreed to fight Andy Biggs after being challenged to do so. Andy Biggs is the nickname of one of my best friends. We both took positions in the legislative branch of government in the nation’s capital. An influential voice in the House panel responsible for investigating and reporting on legislative action. Although he lost, McCarthy finally won. He led his team to a 4-1 victory. Kevin McCarthy deserves everyone’s support. Only some people can always be on the same page with us. We can get along just fine without having a Democrat Party leader like Nancy Pelosi setting the tone and directing policies. At our gathering, there will be passionate disagreements and disputes. Our conference voted for Kevin McCarthy, and now we must all agree on him, even though it would be disastrous to give the Democrats an opening by electing a moderate or liberal Republican as Speaker of the House. It’s good to know that Jim Jordan and I will have a strong advocate in Kevin, the newly elected Speaker, to bring the present government to account.
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) and her conservative challenger, Harriet Hageman, have expressed concern over the outcomes of recent elections.
According to an interview Hageman provided Breitbart News, “the people of Wyoming sent me to Washington to check the power grab by Joe Biden’s administration, and the people of the United States gave the Republicans a majority in the House.”
Please vote for Kevin McCarthy for Speaker, and I hope my fellow Republicans can see the danger in playing games that might help the Democrats regain power. The Democrats are entirely to blame for this disaster, so the Republican caucus must avoid any moves that could be seen as handing power back to the Democrats.
Mike Cernovich and Andy Surabian, a former White House aide to Trump, now Donald Trump Jr.’s senior assistant, aren’t the only conservatives who have voiced concerns.
The prospect of the Democrats assuming control of the House has conservative convert John Cardillo calling for a unified front in support of McCarthy.
In light of his public statement to NBC News, Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) has been singled out as an establishment Republican who would be prepared to work with Democrats to find a solution.
A contributor informed Breitbart News that the Bacon organization “is privately rooting on Matt Gaetz and Andy Biggs.”
Many individuals share Bacon’s views, and Republican defector and current House member Justin Amash of Michigan has been unusually forthright about his motivations since quitting the party over President Trump.
Colorado Democrat and Amash’s former colleague in the House, Jared Polis, has also said he would be okay with Amash being the compromise speaker.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) recently expressed her doubts about the GOP’s participation in the fight, saying, “I honestly feel that’s a dreadful strategy when we’re looking at having a very razor-thin majority, with probably 219 [seats], we’re talking about one vote” on the Fox News show War Room.
Numerous rebel factions from all across the world have given their support.
While acknowledging this was an inevitable result of their campaign on many occasions during his interview with Breitbart News, Gaetz initially blamed McCarthy for the situation rather than himself or the other people who were fighting McCarthy.
When asked if a member of the Republican establishment could become Speaker with Democratic votes in exchange for a rules change nullifying subpoenas, Gaetz responded, “If that were to happen, that would only happen by the hand of Kevin McCarthy.” This is the time for Kevin McCarthy to drop out of the race, as he knows he cannot take the entire Republican conference down with him if he insists on a ballot.
After McCarthy said he could call for a vote on the matter in the House, Gaetz stated, “I reject the premise that that’s the level we’re going to go to.” McCarthy blamed Gaetz for the delay in the nomination of McCarthy in the House.
Gaetz, noting the growing number of senators who disapprove of McCarthy, stated, “Kevin McCarthy should come to the same conclusion he’s gotten at previously.” In other words, Gaetz said that McCarthy should conclude that he will have to withdraw his bid for Speaker, just as he did in 2011.
Gaetz thinks it’s possible, though highly improbable, that the House would vote on the subject if McCarthy pushed for it.
Even if we disagree, I can see how it could work,” Gaetz remarked.
A while into the interview, he made his forecast.
Gaetz guaranteed that this would not happen. In my opinion, the Republican caucus in the House would vote to install a Republican speaker even if the Democrats did not support the candidate, based on talks I’ve had with many Republicans. In case there was any doubt, I am not pleading with Democrats to back the candidates I back. Also denying any involvement in such behavior is Kevin McCarthy.
Although Gaetz is aware of the danger, he claims that the dire forecasts are “a McCarthy-inspired bluff.”
As a member of Congress, Gaetz’s anti-McCarthy rhetoric is second only to Biggs’. There are no wavering minds here; nobody will ever vote for McCarthy.
It has been reported by Breitbart News that Gaetz has said things like, “I wouldn’t vote for Kevin McCarthy if he were holding my favorite pet hostage,” and “I can’t picture a person voting for Kevin McCarthy.”
Rosendale, who says he will only vote for McCarthy under “exceptional circumstances,” is the second potential no-vote.
CREATING MORE AND MORE CHAOS
Breitbart News reports that a former White House chief of staff and consultant to former House Freedom Caucus chairman Mark Meadows thinks the anti-McCarthy rebels are not nearly as organized or focused as similar rebellions inside the GOP in recent years.
We’re unlucky that this occurred to us. One of Mark Meadows’s former advisors said this “would never have occurred” when Meadows was in charge. As a result, they are unprepared for the threats they may face.
If McCarthy dared these dissenters to vote against him on the floor, the Republican Party would have good reason to be worried. Those who favor investigating McCarthy concede the existence of the “doomsday scenario” described above, in which Democrats provide the votes necessary to install a well-known Republican replacement in exchange for subpoena authority.
Gaetz contends that preventing McCarthy’s election isn’t the sole option and offers other alternatives.
Gaetz said that Steve Scalise, the current House GOP whip and next House Majority Leader, maybe “one option” for the role.
You may object that this is only one example, but Gaetz said, “I don’t know whether Steve Scalise would have five votes against him; that’s something for him to examine and evaluate at a time and manner of his choosing.”
Gaetz predicts that a new “consensus” candidate will emerge if McCarthy loses.
To paraphrase, “since such a coalition is going to be necessary to govern anyway, why not get down to the business of having that kind of small council direct the government?” describes a model in which a consensus Republican is elected solely by Republicans, someone who has broad support around the conference but would functionally be a figurehead overseeing a coalition government comprising members of the Tuesday Group, the Main Street Partnership, and the Freedom Caucus.
”
Gaetz then suggested a third possibility involving departing or soon-to-depart legislators like Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), who just switched parties, and Lee Zeldin (R-NY), who recently stated he would not run again (R-NY).
There is no requirement that the Speaker of the House is a current lawmaker, and both parties support former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and current NY-23 reelection candidate Lee Zeldin. Gaetz said the third option would bring in someone “somewhat divorced from the strain and stress of being a current member of the House.”
Despite claims from friends and family that he is liked and respected, it seems unlikely that the 218 Republicans in the House of Representatives will vote to elevate Gabbard to Speaker of the House for the Republican Party, given her recent defection from the Democrat Party and subsequent absence from office (RNC).
You have to question whether Gaetz and the other anti-McCarthy forces have a strategy beyond merely revolting for revolt’s sake when you look at his three possibilities beyond the disastrous one.
According to a member of the House Freedom Caucus, the organization has lost potential members because of its inability to articulate a clear strategy or purpose.
Bob will no longer have to answer questions. My conversation with Andy Biggs covered a wide range of topics. If the Democrats are elected, they will likely reach a compromise with our moderates that will usher in Paul Ryan 2.0 or some other disaster.
Nick Fuentes, a famous opponent of McCarthy and a white supremacist and Holocaust denier, dined with President Trump and musician Kanye West on a Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago. He was guaranteed to be mentioned in the media. At the same time, its offices were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
A key supporter of the alt-right in the country outside of the legislature, Fuentes has been outed as a white supremacist and Holocaust denier by Breitbart News. Even if Fuentes were to alter his viewpoint and try to convince many people, he probably wouldn’t be successful.
Later, he retweeted a tweet in which Gaetz slammed McCarthy and urged “let’s go” in favor of the proposed action, and he criticized Trump and Greene for supporting McCarthy and their ilk. Fuentes’s Telegram profile is littered with promoted material.
He claims, “The MAGA movement didn’t force me to leave; I left them.”
As the face of the anti-McCarthy movement, Fuentes’s credibility has taken a knock since Trump and Kanye West dined together last week.
Historically speaking, McCarty has already won the debate.
There have only been a handful of runoff elections for Speaker in the whole history of the House of Representatives. For example, in 1855, the first two months of Congress were spent debating and voting on who would head the House of Representatives as Speaker.
Many voted to keep Frederick Gillett as Speaker on December 4, 1923.
Speculation of this like is par for the course in the days preceding a vote for Speaker in the House of Representatives, especially when the margin is razor tight, but in the end, the nominee of the majority party usually triumphs.
Due to widespread television coverage of political events, there will be a second or third round of voting in the United States for the first time in over ten years. In late 2012, Breitbart News reported that a group of conservatives planned to use this strategy in early 2013 to remove then-Speaker John Boehner from his position. Boehner’s standing was diminished when Obama took office for a second term.
He only needed 216 votes to become Speaker, and he easily won because many people were homesick because of the weather, and other Democrats were attending the burial of Mario Cuomo. Last year, Pelosi was elected Speaker of the House with 216 votes in her favor.
However, the candidate backed by the party in power has always been elected Speaker.
McCarthy still has almost five weeks to negotiate with the opposition legislators before the vote.