Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar, a famous polling organization, is the person whose work is being criticized. Trafalgar, however, has caused a commotion in the polling arena in recent elections, which was much-needed after the business delivered so many embarrassing failures after 2016. During a lengthy discussion on my radio program, Cahaly discussed the ways in which Trafalgar is different from its rivals methodologically (if you’re into political statistics, it’s interesting stuff). They have a far lower margin of error than the industry heavyweights and have properly predicted the victor in almost 92% of races. They were practically flawless in the 2021 Virginia governor race and were considerably closer than some of the prominent pollsters in a variety of states in 2020. They also correctly predicted a tight contest in New Jersey last year when no one else did. Take into account the above, and listen to the following exchange:
Cahaly told me that his most recent national figures showed the GOP with a five-point advantage on the generic ballot but that he anticipated this margin to grow somewhat in the next data. Certainly, Trafalgar’s latest 2022 voter survey was released over the weekend:
In that case, the Democrats may expect to be hit by a red tsunami next week. It would be a fantastic night for the GOP even if Republicans only won the “national popular” vote in the House by a margin of two or three points. With little over a week to go until the election, here is a new CBS poll showing that the Republicans are ahead:
Now I’ll let you in on a little secret: The entire electorate will not be R+2 if this poll’s statistics among independent voters are true (Republicans ahead by 16 points, and Joe Biden’s popularity rating at 32 percent). The floor for the House of Representatives would be 228 members. This reminds me, let’s go back to the interview with Cahaly. He seemed quite optimistic about the Republican Party’s chances in the Senate races in Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Additionally, he added that New Hampshire is a potential swing state. Furthermore, these statistics suggest that Washington State is as well:
And just as I’m not convinced that Kathy Hochul is on the verge of losing in New York, I continue to doubt that Murray is on the verge of losing. Both of these contests appear to be closer than the Democrats in these extremely blue states would want, but I’m not sure I’m willing to call an upset in either one. However, communist organizations are sending money to the nation’s capital, and I don’t believe they’re doing it for kicks.
Declaring herself the “underdog” and reportedly performing pranks like these, Hochul is hardly behaving like a confident New York Democrat in the home stretch. The DGA is placing a desperate bet on her well-being, probably because they didn’t budget for her to spend any money while they were in New York. On the other hand, I doubt that Ron DeSantis would leave Florida to campaign for an underdog like Hochul. With enormous down-ballot consequences in New York, he has clearly concluded that being a good team player and helping rally the base is worth his time and resources, even if Lee Zeldin falls short. Think about the political truth that this year the campaign for governor in New York is much tighter than in Florida. If a large red wave materializes, it will be easy to see why at the time. It’s crazy that this is actually occurring:
Meanwhile, the Democrats are promoting this surrogate:
Here are a few updates on the crucial Pennsylvania Senate race: Dr. Oz has taken a little lead in the polls following the disastrous debate, and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has backed him while harshly criticizing his opponent, John Fetterman.
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Here is a new batch of NYT/Siena surveys that are all terrible for Republicans if conservatives are counting chickens before next week. If these results hold, the GOP is doing worse in Arizona and Georgia than it did before the debates, worse in Pennsylvania (mainly pre-debate sample), and about even in Nevada. Those figures may be off, right? Yes.