John Zogby of Zogby Polling has found that Joe Biden is dramatically under-performing among Black voters. Only 77% of all Black voters are definitely supporting Joe Biden for president. Another 14% say they support President Trump with 9% still undecided. This is terrible news for Biden. Democrats depend on getting more than 90% of the Black vote in order to win.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 88% of the Black vote as opposed to Trump’s 9%. In reality, it could be much worse than the Zogby poll indicates because many Black voters may be afraid to admit that they support President Trump. We must also take into account the fact that if Kanye West actually does run, he will take Black votes away from Biden. More so than Trump.
Barack Obama received 93% of the vote in 2012. let’s assume that Trump picks up just 1% of the 9% of undecided Black voters. That would give Trump 15% of the Black vote, an increase of 5% over the 2016 election which he won easily. This could lead to a landslide victory and if his coattails are long enough, the Republicans will control all three branches of government once again.
During that race, Clinton received 88 percent of the black vote, according to exit polls. Although impressive, the numbers were significantly lower than the 93 percent former President Barack Obama garnered on his way to reelection in 2012.
The drop-off was most significant in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states that went narrowly for Trump in that election after having backed Democrats at the presidential level for nearly three decades. For example, data from the Michigan secretary of state’s office indicates Clinton received 75,000 fewer votes in Wayne County—where Detroit is located—than Obama did in 2012. Even though Clinton still won the country by a substantial margin, the decrease in support ensured Clinton lost the state to Trump, who made strong inroads with white working-class voters, by more than 10,000 votes.