Population Of India Slated To Surpass China By As Soon As 2023

Currently, India is making its way down a path that will lead it to overtake China in population by 2023, as reported by a series of projections from the UN, with an expected total population of roughly 1.4 billion people.

Over the course of the next year, China's population is expected to decline, seeing its population drop for the first time in quite a few decades. Currently, China sports one of the lowest birth rates in the entire world with an average of 1.15 children per woman, which is well below the standard replacement rate of 2.1. After many decades of forcibly hamstringing the national birthrate via the infamous 'one-child policy', China has realized it needs to quickly pull a one-eighty on its mindset as it starts to deal with the demographic crises of an ever-aging population and an extreme sex imbalance. Officially, it let go of its 'one-child policy' back in 2016 and now trying to push a new 'three-child policy' with increased tax incentives for any couples who have more kids. Despite these changes being set in place, the national birthrate has continued to plummet, with the most recent 1.15 children per woman for 2021 being down from the 1.4 children per woman it sat at in 2020.

As of writing, China is not the only nation dealing with a shrinking population. Current UN reports state an estimate that explained that by 2050 over 61 countries will go through at least a 1% population decline; fertility rates are dropping all across the world and most of the developed world is dealing with a population that is below the replacement rate. The global population is slated to reach its apex at roughly 10.4 billion around the year 2080, with some estimates suggesting that it could end up peaking much sooner than that. While concern about possible overpopulation has been seen throughout the unprecedented boom of the 20th century, many leading voices are now stating that underpopulation will be a much more severe long-term issue.

"I think one of the biggest risks to civilization is the low birthrate and the rapidly declining birthrate," stated Elon Musk while attending CEO Council Summit from The Wall Street Journal last year. "And yet, so many people, including smart people, think that there are too many people in the world and think that the population is growing out of control. It’s completely the opposite. Please look at the numbers — if people don’t have more children, civilization is going to crumble, mark my words."

As explained by the Associated Press, "The U.S. birth rate fell 4% last year, the largest single-year decrease in nearly 50 years," and the drop was seen in "every major race and ethnicity, and in nearly every age group, falling to the lowest point since federal health officials started tracking it more than a century ago."

The fairly extreme drop in birth rates noted in both the United States and China throughout the COVID-19 pandemic seems to suggest that the public health restrictions and overall lockdowns seem to play a significate role in the dropping of fertility rates, however, it is still fairly unclear as to if the trend will slow down or go back up as the nations go back to normal.

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