In a notable shift in political dynamics, recent polling data from NBC News reveals that former President Donald Trump has, for the first time, edged ahead of President Joe Biden in a hypothetical national general election matchup. The poll, which garnered attention upon its release on Sunday, shows Trump leading Biden by a narrow margin of 46% to 44%.
Steve Kornacki, NBC’s national political correspondent, shared these findings on “Meet the Press,” emphasizing the significance of this development. He noted that this is the first instance in more than a dozen NBC polls where Trump has outpaced Biden.
The polling data is particularly striking among younger voters, aged 18 to 34, where Trump has secured a 46% to 42% lead over Biden. This marks a dramatic shift from the 2020 election, where Biden enjoyed a substantial lead among this demographic.
Biden’s approval ratings among young voters have seen a considerable decline, plummeting from 46% in September to 31%, according to the poll. Contributing factors to this trend could include dissatisfaction with Biden’s approach to international conflicts, such as the Israel-Hamas war, which the poll suggests has caused division within the Democratic Party. Notably, 70% of younger voters disapproved of Biden’s handling of this issue.
In terms of overall job performance, Biden’s approval rating stands at 40%, against a 57% disapproval rating, marking his lowest approval figures recorded by NBC during his presidency. Specifically, Biden’s foreign policy received only 33% approval from voters, a decrease from previous months.
While Biden’s handling of the economy shows a slight improvement, with a 38% approval rating, this remains a contentious area.
The trend of Trump surpassing Biden extends beyond this NBC poll. Various other national and battleground state polls also indicate Trump leading in a potential 2024 general election face-off. In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Trump holds a 1.6 percentage point advantage over Biden.
Moreover, a comprehensive Stack Data Strategy survey involving 15,000 respondents projected Trump winning the Electoral College in a matchup against Biden.
With the 2024 presidential election scheduled for November 5, Biden’s campaign team appears to be downplaying these poll results.
Additionally, the NBC poll sheds light on the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race, showing Trump with a significant lead over potential GOP contenders. He commands 58% support, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
The NBC poll, conducted between November 10 and 14, surveyed 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. It also includes subgroups of Republican and Democratic primary voters, with respective margins of error of 5.5 and 5.6 percentage points.