There’s no need to sugarcoat it: the Democrats fared well in the midterms. They gained a Senate seat in Pennsylvania and, assuming they preserve hold of their current seat in Georgia, will gain a net of one (and if they lose Georgia, they still keep their majority with the vice president as the tie-breaker, just as they did in the 117th Congress). Furthermore, the Democrats managed to pick up one governorship. The outcome of the 118th Congress is still uncertain, but it appears like Republicans will take the House of Representatives.
But there are bright spots that give Republicans hope for the future, including the president in 2024.
Motivation Disconnect
Joe Biden received 81 million votes in 2020, while Donald Trump received 74 million votes, giving Biden a popular vote victory of more than seven million.
This year, though, Republicans received more votes than Democrats did for the House of Representatives. As of November 13, votes for Republican candidates totaled 52,142,213, while votes for Democratic candidates were just 47,127,174. There are five million people missing. Simply put, the Republican edge went from minus seven million in 2020 to plus five million in 2022. With a difference of 12 million votes, that’s a significant gap.
It’s important to note that voter turnout often drops from presidential to midterm elections. The U.S. Elections Project found that the decline from presidential to midterm elections over the past half-century averaged 31%. However, the number of votes cast for the Democrats dropped by 42% between 2020 and 2022. The Republican vote, on the other hand, only dropped by 29%. (Yes, the underperformance of Republican candidates in relation to the excitement of their voters is a bit of a mystery.)
Democrats would do well to maintain their modesty even as they bask in the glow of electoral success. This, however, does not appear to be the case.
Infectious Sweep of “Victory”
As the Japanese have learned the hard way, senshoubyou may be quite painful. That’s how they put it; it means “victory illness” This mental disorder hit Japan hard in the years following their surprise assault and subsequent triumph at Pearl Harbor in 1941. Japan’s military expanded its geographical control throughout East Asia in the following months. Even though they didn’t recognize it at the time, their success also brought victory over an illness. The Japanese were so confident in their ability to win at Midway in June of 1942 that they failed to see the growing power of the United States Navy.
We shall see what the Democrats are like 80 years later. A reporter asked President Joe Biden at the White House on November 9, the day after the elections, “What do you intend to do differently in the next two years?” The president grinned as he responded, “Nothing since they’re just discovering what we’re doing. The more people are aware of our efforts, the more support we will receive.
There you have it; despite the fact that Biden’s approval rating is at 41.5% on average and hasn’t been above 50% since August 2021, he thinks everything is OK. He believes that more of the same will accomplish the trick.
And on November 13, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told ABC News that Biden should run again in 2024. “He has been a terrific president, and he has a tremendous record to run on,” she said of the incumbent.
Even though the Democrats will almost certainly lose their majority in the House this year, there is at least a chance that Pelosi, at age 82, will remain as the Democratic leader, at least as minority leader if not as a speaker. Since she was just re-elected to her House position, she has no plans to quit, as she stated on November 13. So, the big question is whether or not she wants to be the minority leader.
Pelosi, who was born in 1940, has led the House Democrats as its leader in both the majority and the minority since 2003. Twenty years in the spotlight have given her the wounds and the strengths that come with them. It’s obvious that she enjoys being in charge, but for years now, younger Democrats in the House have been frustrated by her continued leadership.
In 2018, her juniors successfully argued for a limit on her number of terms as Democratic leader, and she conceded. In 2020, she reiterated her commitment to the plan. But now that the clock has struck midnight, her options are limited. Is she planning on leaving her position? Or go back to her word? They have no idea. The other two senior Democrats in the House, Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn would be in a precarious position if Pelosi, 82, stayed. Like us, they’re well into their 80s.
Eighty-something. Is this the image the Democrats in the House want to project to the country? Or, Pelosi may stay (it’s hard to imagine her being beaten in a challenge) and push out one or both of her fellow octogenarians, bringing in new blood everywhere else but at the top. Did I not tell you that Joe Biden would be 80 on November 20?
The problem with the victory illness is that it makes you unable to make rational decisions. As a result of your recent success, you now believe that similar outcomes are certain. Have the Democrats really settled on an aging and unmoving team to lead them into 2024? It’s not impossible.
And if that does occur, if Democrats go forward as if no red flags are waving, the Republicans, with their higher levels of excitement and their younger slate of candidates, have a lot to look forward to.