Experts are expressing fears about the possible beginning of World War III due to the rising tensions in the South China Sea, namely in relation to the territorial disputes between China and the Philippines. With Beijing’s actions demonstrating a flagrant disdain for current mutual defense accords, particularly between the Philippines and the United States, the spotlight on the Philippines has increased.
Renowned China researcher and Gatestone Institute scholar Gordon Chang told Fox News Digital that these tensions are significant. In order to fulfill its commitments under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the United States is prepared to use force, as shown by recent warnings sent to China by the U.S. State Department. These events suggest that the US is indicating that it is prepared to go to war in order to fulfill its obligations under treaties.
Yang Xiao, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Strategy Studies, compared the present dynamics between China and the Philippines to those in Europe before to World War I in an opinion piece that was published in the state-owned China Daily. The author said that these similarities may lead to a big war. Yang’s editorial uses the image of the “Sarajevo gunshot,” a reference to the murder that started World War I, as a metaphor for possible violence in the South China Sea, even if it does not formally represent China Daily’s position.
Due to contested fishing areas, Chinese personnel have been harassing and intimidating Filipino fishermen and coast guard boats, placing the Philippines in the epicenter of their maritime aggressiveness. The occurrences in the Second Thomas Shoal, when Chinese warships used military-grade lasers and water cannons, highlight the escalating hostilities in the area.
China claimed the Scarborough Shoal in 2012, a claim that the Philippines disputed before a tribunal supported by the UN. Beijing has subsequently ignored the 2016 verdict, which rejected China’s claims on the basis of historical evidence and heightened tensions.
Amidst these developments, the first comprehensive combined naval drill in the disputed islands is scheduled to be carried out by the US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines. An declaration of intentions for combined patrols in the region is anticipated to follow this display of military cohesion and commitment, indicating a coordinated effort to offset China’s aggressive posturing.
Chang cautions that even with the mutual defense pact with the US, China’s focus may still be on its neighbors, mainly Japan and Taiwan, but that the Philippines is still a particularly susceptible target because of its comparatively lower military capabilities. In light of the present tensions and provocations in the area, he argues that a fight with China may start over the Philippines rather than Taiwan or Japan.
In addition to becoming a key flashpoint in international affairs, the unstable situation in the South China Sea also increases the possibility of a big power clash stemming from the long-standing issues in the Philippines.