Allan Lichtman, a historian with a notable track record for predicting presidential election outcomes, has once again made a forecast for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. According to Lichtman, the current president, Joe Biden, holds a substantial advantage over his primary contender, Donald Trump, despite Biden’s lagging performance in national polls and key swing states.
Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C., bases his predictions on a model he developed called the “13 Keys to the White House,” which he described in a book he wrote in the 1980s. This model assesses the performance of the sitting president’s administration using thirteen true/false criteria that include political, economic, and social indicators. The keys range from midterm election results and economic conditions to social unrest and scandal.
For the 2024 election, Lichtman points out that two of his thirteen keys—the lack of a serious primary challenge and incumbency—are already favorable for Biden. Lichtman explains that Biden needs only seven of the thirteen keys to lean in his favor to predict his victory. He emphasized that for Biden to lose, six more keys would need to turn against him, suggesting that a significant deterioration in circumstances would be required for a Biden defeat.
Despite his confidence in Biden’s position, Lichtman cautions against complacency, referencing the unique circumstances of the upcoming election. These include the unprecedented scenario of a former president and major party candidate, Trump, who might face legal repercussions during the campaign period. Lichtman also notes that external events, like the COVID-19 pandemic which he credits with impacting the 2020 election outcome, could again alter the electoral landscape.
Lichtman’s method has historically disregarded traditional polling data, which he criticizes for its lack of long-term predictive power months before an election. His approach instead focuses on broader socio-economic and political trends to gauge the national mood and the incumbent’s performance.
His past success includes predicting Trump’s win in 2016 and Biden’s in 2020, although his record is not without controversy. He acknowledges a technical miss in 2000 when he predicted Al Gore would win; Gore won the popular vote but lost the presidency.
As the 2024 election approaches, Lichtman’s prediction method will again be tested in a highly polarized and unpredictable political environment, underscoring the dynamic nature of American electoral politics.