In a recent hypothetical electoral survey, the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race were examined, revealing a competitive landscape. The poll, conducted with a diverse group of 1,500 registered voters between November 29 and December 4, 2023, carried a margin of error of ±2.5%.
In a direct face-off, the survey found former President Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden with a 47% to 43% lead. However, the inclusion of five potential third-party candidates shifted the scenario, extending Trump’s lead over Biden from 37% to 31%.
The survey also explored other potential match-ups. Nikki Haley, former Ambassador to the United Nations, showed a strong lead against Biden with 51% to Biden’s 34%. In contrast, a contest between Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis resulted in a 45-45% tie.
The survey attributes Biden’s challenging numbers to widespread dissatisfaction with his presidency. Only about 20% of Americans felt positively impacted by Biden’s policies, while a significant 53% felt adversely affected. Biden’s overall job performance was disapproved by over 60% of voters, with a slightly higher approval compared to Trump’s performance as president.
Economic concerns dominate voter sentiments, with two-thirds expressing a negative view of the current economy and its deterioration over the past two years. Trump was favored over Biden on several key issues, including the economy, crime, inflation, border security, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Biden, however, received higher approval on abortion policies and his political tone.
Ryan Girdusky, a Republican consultant, highlighted the crucial role of state elections and pointed out the potential impact of abortion as a critical issue. He emphasized the influence of Trump’s Supreme Court appointments and the subsequent overturning of Roe v. Wade on voter sentiment, especially among women.
The survey also reflected perceptions of Trump having greater stamina and mental acuity for the presidency, despite Biden, at 81, being the oldest serving American president. However, Biden scored higher in perceived honesty and respect for democracy.
Conducted by pollsters Tony Fabrizio, a Republican and long-time Trump associate, and Democrat Michael Bocian, the poll sheds light on the potential strategies and challenges for both candidates. Fabrizio noted that Trump’s advantage lies in policy and performance, while Biden’s strengths are in temperament and character.
The poll also reaffirmed Trump’s strong standing in the GOP primary, showing him leading significantly with 59% support among Republican primary voters. Haley and DeSantis were seen in a close race for second place, garnering 15% and 14% support, respectively.