A recent poll suggests Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. According to a USA Today/Suffolk University survey conducted from September 11 to 14, Harris is ahead of Trump by three percentage points, 49% to 46%, among likely voters in the state. The poll’s margin of error is 4.4 percentage points, making the race effectively a toss-up.
The survey, which was carried out entirely after last week’s presidential debate, is one of the first conducted in Pennsylvania since the event. It also comes just before the release of news regarding a second assassination attempt on Trump, which could impact voter sentiment as Election Day approaches on November 5.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, remains a critical focus for both parties. Alongside Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, it is among the key states that narrowly determined the outcome of the 2020 election. Both Harris and Trump have been heavily campaigning in Pennsylvania, reflecting the state’s importance. According to figures from AdImpact, a national ad tracking firm, more political advertising dollars have been spent in Pennsylvania than in any other battleground state.
Further polls in key counties of Erie and Northampton, considered bellwethers in Pennsylvania, also show Harris maintaining a slight lead by mid-single digits. Analysts suggest that a significant gender gap is contributing to Harris’s advantage. The statewide poll shows Harris leading Trump by 17 points among female voters, while Trump maintains a 12-point lead among male voters.
“This is a significant gender advantage,” noted Dave Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “The margin among women is nearly twice Trump’s edge among men.”
With 50 days remaining until the election, Pennsylvania remains a central focus, as political experts agree it is pivotal to securing the presidency. As Republican strategist Mark Harris commented, “It’s hard to see a candidate losing Pennsylvania and still winning the race.”
Both campaigns are expected to continue to pour resources into Pennsylvania as the race tightens.