Although young people around the country overwhelmingly supported Democrats on Tuesday, one state went against the grain and gave its candidate an easy victory.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who won re-election by a 20-point margin over Charlie Crist, was instrumental in his party’s triumph because of a surprising 49% of the vote from voters aged 18 to 29. With this victory, Sen. Marco Rubio and many other Republican House candidates and statewide politicians were able to bury the Democrats in Florida, a state that was once thought to be on the battlefield. When compared to other states, Florida’s results for the GOP among young voters were abysmal.
The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) claimed, based on exit surveys, that “the nationwide youth vote choice for the U.S. House of Representatives was 63% for Democrats, 35% for Republicans.” In 2018, the youth vote between Democrats and Republicans was 67% to 32%—the greatest margin ever for Democrats among young voters. This is nearly equal to 2020 when youth favored Democrats to Republicans by 62% to 36%, and a tiny tilt in favor of Republicans from the previous midterm.
According to an AP VoteCast study, the Republican share of Florida’s crucial demographic increased by nine percentage points from the 2018 midterms, when DeSantis was first elected governor. The percentage of the vote cast by Floridians between the ages of 18 and 29 that went to the Democrats fell by 14 points, to 44%, during the same time period.
In contrast, in 2022, 54% of the youth vote in Pennsylvania went to Democrats, while just 43% went to Republicans. While the Republicans improved their margin of victory by four points over the Democrats in 2018, the Democrats only saw a five-point drop. 70% of voters in Pennsylvania who were between the ages of 18 and 29 chose Democrat John Fetterman over Republican Mehmet Oz in a close Senate election.
Georgia’s youth voted 54%-43% for the Democrats over the Republicans in 2018, meaning the Democrats lost eight points and the Republicans gained the same amount. Voter turnout in Arizona was high, with Democrats holding a 57%-38% lead. However, the Democrats’ cushion has shrunk by five points since 2018, while the GOP’s has grown by the same amount.
Although DeSantis, 44, has not announced if he plans to seek his party’s presidential candidacy in 2024, the significance of the 18-29 vote could push the GOP to seek a candidate with proven appeal to the age group.
It was highlighted by CIRCLE that “young people aged 18 to 29 are the only age group in whom a significant majority favored Democrats,” based on exit poll data.
Despite the fact that the Republican candidate in Arizona, Blake Masters, is relatively young, exit polls revealed a decisive victory for the Democrats among the critical demographic. More than 75% of the vote from voters under the age of 30 went to the incumbent, Mark Kelly.
“The teenage vote is interesting because we know that when they show up, they tend to be more progressive, tend to be on the Left,” Fox News’s Shannon Bream said. People constantly doubt that voters will actually cast ballots despite hearing calls to “rock the vote” and similar phrases, but it appears like turnout will be higher than predicted. The rumors were true; they did show up.