In a prospective rematch for the November election, President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump, according to a recent Quinnipiac University survey. According to the national poll, Biden leads Trump 50%–44% of registered voters, which is a slight improvement over his prior advantage of one point from a survey conducted in December.
But when there are more contenders in a hypothetical general election, Biden’s lead over Trump decreases. According to the poll, Biden’s margin over Trump decreases when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included. Biden is now leading Trump by 39%, while Kennedy is trailing behind at 14%, progressive independent candidate Cornell West is at 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2%.
In the event that Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley were to challenge Biden, the survey also points to a tough field. In a hypothetical November contest between the two candidates, Haley—the former governor of South Carolina and ambassador to the United Nations—reportedly beats Biden by five points. However, Biden leads a crowded field with 36% to 29% for Haley, 21% for Kennedy, 3% for West, and 2% for Stein.
The clear favorites to win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, respectively, are Biden and Trump. With double-digit victories in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, as well as a commanding 77% of the vote to Haley’s 21% in the GOP primary, Trump is clearly in the lead.
With 78% of the vote, Biden leads the Democratic primary field. Author Marianne Williamson is next with 11%, and Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips is third with 6%.
The poll also reveals a notable disparity in support for Biden between the sexes, with women firmly supporting him. Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University, claims that this gender group has a significant role in Biden’s current lead against Trump.
From January 25 to 29, 1,650 self-described registered voters countrywide were surveyed for the Quinnipiac poll. The sampling error of the survey is within 2.4 percentage points. This information sheds light on how the 2024 presidential contest will change over time and how third-party candidates will affect the electoral environment.