New analysis of preliminary 2026 census projections indicates that New York and California are both poised to lose congressional representation in the U.S. House of Representatives following the **2030 census reapportionment.
Population trends in recent years show slower growth or declines in both states compared with faster-growing regions. As a result, the allocation of seats in the 435-member House is expected to shift, with New York and California each surrendering multiple seats to states with rising populations.
Demographers project that this change reflects broader migration patterns, including movements toward the South and West, as well as economic and housing factors that have influenced where people choose to live. Both New York and California have experienced years of net migration outflows, while states such as Texas, Florida and other Sun Belt jurisdictions have built significant population gains.
The reapportionment process, which follows each decennial census, adjusts House seats based on updated population counts to ensure equal representation among states. Losing seats means fewer representatives in Congress and can influence political dynamics, federal funding formulas, and legislative influence for the states affected.
Officials and political leaders in New York and California have acknowledged the looming changes, with some expressing concern about the implications for their states’ political clout and ability to advocate effectively for resources and policy priorities at the federal level.
The expected loss of seats will trigger redistricting efforts within each state, as lawmakers and commissions redraw congressional maps to reflect the updated number of districts. This once-in-a-decade process often leads to heated negotiations over new boundaries and can reshape the political landscape for years to come.
As the 2030 census approaches, analysts will continue refining projections and monitoring demographic shifts that will determine the final seat allocation ahead of the next Congress.