In the past year, renowned film box office analyst Valliant Renegade conducted an intriguing assessment of Disney’s recent film releases. Despite the company’s divisive “woke agenda” and the growing disconnect with the general public, Renegade estimated that Disney suffered a staggering loss of nearly $900 million across their last eight movies.
Among the films scrutinized were “Lightyear,” “Thor: Love and Thunder,” “Strange World,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “Antman and The Wasp: Quantumania,” “Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3,” “The Little Mermaid,” and “Elemental.” It’s worth noting that the last two movies were still playing in theaters at the time of analysis.
To determine the performance of these films, Renegade compared their box office results with their marketing budgets over the preceding 12 months. Accounting for production expenses and excluding additional costs such as overruns and reshoots, the analyst identified a total production budget of $1,735,000,000, with an extra $1,015,000,000 spent on global prints and advertisements.
Considering these figures, Renegade estimated the cumulative costs to be $2,750,000,000. However, he acknowledged that his estimate might have erred on the side of caution, potentially favoring Disney in the calculations.
Renegade also highlighted the intricacies of box office revenues, emphasizing that they do not account for the significant expenditures associated with film production and marketing. From box office rentals, Disney typically retains 55% of domestic sales, 43% of international sales, and 25% from films released in China.
As an example, he examined the performance of “Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3.” The film generated $345.6 million domestically, contributing approximately $190 million to Disney. Internationally, it earned $385 million, resulting in approximately $165 million for Disney. Additionally, it garnered $90 million from China, translating to around $22.5 million for Disney.
Based on these calculations, Renegade estimated that Disney’s total returns for the eight films amounted to $1.861 billion, resulting in a loss of $890 million. However, it’s important to note that these figures do not encompass the economic opportunity costs incurred by Disney due to their decision not to license their films to other streaming services and companies.
Renegade stressed the significance of these opportunity costs, explaining that Disney now exclusively retains its content post-theatrical release. In the past, Disney would license their major content, such as the entire Marvel Cinematic Universe, to platforms like Netflix, resulting in substantial third-party contracts. This strategy represented billions of dollars in potential revenue that is now no longer accessible.
Hence, it becomes evident that the financial impact on Disney extends beyond box office losses alone. By retaining their content exclusively for Disney+, the company has forgone substantial profits it could have gained by licensing films to streaming giants like Netflix or Amazon Prime, or even adopting a split-pay window approach akin to Universal’s strategy.
Considering both the box office losses and the economic opportunity costs, the analyst painted a picture of significant financial implications for Disney. Their decision to keep their content within their own ecosystem, while driven by the support for Disney+, has undoubtedly affected their bottom line.