A December 2 special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District has unexpectedly become a high-stakes battle — one that could shrink the Republican majority in the U.S. House down to the slimmest of margins.
Once considered a safe seat for the GOP, recent polling shows Republican candidate Matt Van Epps leading by just two points over Democrat Aftyn Behn — a margin within the error range. This has sparked alarm among Republicans who worry even a narrow loss could reduce their majority to a razor-thin 218–216, leaving little room for defections on key votes.
The seat opened after the resignation of longtime GOP Rep. Mark Green earlier this year. Van Epps and Behn each won their primaries in October and are now facing an election that has drawn national attention, heavy spending, and increased voter mobilization efforts from both parties.
Democrats are seizing on shifting political currents — declining turnout in traditional Republican strongholds and stronger-than-expected enthusiasm among independents and suburban voters — to argue the race is competitive. In response, Republicans have poured resources into last-minute campaigning, anxious that a defeat here could signal broader trouble ahead for their hold on Congress.
As the campaign enters its final days, all eyes are on Tennessee. A surprising upset could reshape dynamics in Washington and sharpen the balance of power just months before the 2026 midterms.