In a bold prediction, Michael Cembalest, a top strategist at JPMorgan Chase, has forecasted that President Joe Biden will not seek re-election in 2024. This prediction is part of Cembalest’s ‘Ten Surprises’ for 2024, a list of unexpected events he believes could occur in the coming year. The strategist, who leads the market and investment strategy unit at JPMorgan Chase’s asset management division, made these forecasts as a tribute to Byron Wien, a former JPMorgan market strategist known for his annual predictions.
Cembalest anticipates that Biden, who is currently 81 years old, will withdraw from the presidential race sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health concerns. Super Tuesday, scheduled for March 5, is a crucial date in the presidential primaries, with contests in over a dozen states, including California and Texas. The outcomes of these contests are often seen as indicative of who will secure the party’s nomination.
Apart from the political prediction, Cembalest’s list includes several other forecasts. He predicts that Americans will reject self-driving electric vehicles following accidents in San Francisco, warns of potential blackouts in several states due to natural gas shortages, and foresees the release of a new inhaled COVID vaccine that could significantly reduce virus transmission. Additionally, he expects the US dollar to remain stable and the Russian invasion of Ukraine to continue without a ceasefire.
Cembalest’s prediction regarding Biden’s withdrawal is partly based on the president’s low approval ratings, despite significant job creation since his inauguration. He notes that the high job creation figures are a by-product of the rollout of COVID vaccines and the reopening of the US economy.
The New York Post has reached out to the White House for comment on these predictions. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris, another potential Democratic candidate, faces her own challenges, with over half of the public disapproving of her job performance, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Currently, Rep. Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson are the only other Democrats who have declared their candidacies, with both considered long-shot candidates. They are set to debate in New Hampshire, with Biden not participating.
On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump remains a front-runner against other GOP hopefuls. Recent polls suggest that if the presidential election were held today, Trump would defeat Biden in a rematch of the 2020 election.
These predictions and the evolving political landscape indicate a year of potential surprises and significant developments in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.