Steven Shepard of Politico downgraded the Arizona U.S. Senate race from “leans Democrat” to “toss-up” on Wednesday, with less than two weeks until the election.
In recent weeks, Republican Blake Masters has surged in the polls as voters approve of the party’s positions on important topics such as immigration, inflation, and crime. According to Politico, the outstanding performance of veteran television news journalist Kari Lake for the Republican party in Arizona’s governor race has aided Masters’ campaign.
Masters is running for office to displace incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (a Democrat). After being elected to fill the seat in a special election in 2020, Kelly intends to secure his first full term in the Senate. Following the reversal of Roe v. Wade, Kelly’s campaign has centered on limiting access to abortion while also attempting to distance the senator from President Joe Biden, whose unpopularity threatens the Democrats.
Masters’ current lead over Kelly is within the margin of error, according to recent polls. According to a Trafalgar/Daily Wire poll conducted this week, the candidates are separated by one point. Masters finished second place, trailing Kelly from 46% to 47%.
Politico now considers the Arizona Senate race a “toss-up,” joining contests in Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. As a result of the shift, the Republican Party’s chances of retaking the Senate the following year have increased. If every other battle goes to the preferred candidate, as predicted by Politico, the Republicans will need to win in three of the five “toss-up” states to gain a majority.
Kelly’s campaign is among the best-funded in the United States. According to reports, his reelection campaign had raised more than $70 million, with an estimated $13 million on hand as of September.
Masters has had difficulty catching up in the fundraising fight since the beginning of the campaign. Peter Thiel, a technological expert, is Masters’ most prominent backer, providing $15 million to his primary campaign. Reportedly, Thiel plans to contribute $5 million in the last weeks of the Masters’ race but withheld funding throughout the general.
Outside organizations and PACs have provided Masters’s campaign with late aid. Thiel first backed the Saving Arizona PAC, which has reportedly spent over $3.7 million on advertising. It is unclear whether Thiel contributed the additional cash.