Harry Enten, a senior data reporter with CNN, stated to top anchor Jake Tapper this past Monday that Republicans are currently looking at historic gains for the upcoming midterm elections in November.
Enten summarized the data set mainly in regard to the U.S. House of Representatives, of which the Democrats currently maintain a quite small 12-seat margin.
WATCH:
Data points to a November blowout, CNN's Harry Enten say, telling Jake Tapper that the GOP is currently in "the best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years." pic.twitter.com/V3vevMlIXJ
— Virginia Kruta (@VAKruta) June 7, 2022
“If you’re a Republican running for re-election, or trying to unseat a Democrat, things are looking pretty good, right?” questioned Tapper.
“I would say they’re looking very good from the historical context. Basically, I took the best Republican positions on the generic congressional ballot at this point in midterm cycles since 1938, that generic ballot basically is, ‘Would you vote for the generic Republican or generic Democrat in your district?'” explained the pollster.
“And guess what? Since 1938, the Republican two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is the best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years,” he went on. “It beats 2010, when Republicans were up a point.”
“Sometimes history isn’t always prologue, but my estimate for the 2023 House makeup if the election were held today — which again, it isn’t … would be Republicans, 236 seats to 241 seats. Democrats, 194 to 199,” stated Enten, seemingly putting forth a prediction about a swing from Democrats +12 to Republicans +37-47.
“That is a stomping or that would be a stomping,” answered Tapper, and Enten agreed, “Yes, it would.”
“A lot of the Democrats’ problems, it seems, can be linked back to the president, right, who is severely underwater,” stated Tapper in an effort to swap topics to talk about the extremely low approval rating for President Joe Biden and how that could impact the midterm elections.
WATCH:
"A lot of the Democrats’ problems, it seems, can be linked back to the president, right, who is severely underwater," Jake Tapper says — and Harry Enten concurs. pic.twitter.com/Cnzds4ER6v
— Virginia Kruta (@VAKruta) June 7, 2022
Enten highlighted that the “midterm penalty,” which is just how many seats the party currently holding the White House stands to lose in any given midterm election, often hinged on the approval rating of the sitting president.
“In 1962, the president’s approval rating, JFK, was 71%. Bill Clinton in 1998, 63%. In the 2002 cycle, 72% for George W. Bush. Joe Biden’s is just 41%,” Enten stated, going on to question, “Why is his approval rating so low?”
Enten then popped up a slide that showed the approval rating in regards to the economy specifically, which most American voters have stated will be by far the most important issue heading into November.
“This is the net approval rating on the economy at this point in a presidency. Joe Biden’s minus 26 points. That is the lowest, tied for the lowest for any president in the last 40-plus years,” explained the pollster/